Wednesday, January 7, 2009

"There is no need to panic. Please clear your mind of thoughts. We will think for you."

Rarely a day goes by any more and some reporter fails to lament about an abysmal economic report projecting the end of the world. From unemployment rates to consumer confidence indices to some guy named Ben who was fired last week because he stole a stapler from the office, frightful stories abound projecting an economic collapse. Some even go so far to say there is no hope for American might when the world returns to normal.

For those who know me it should come to no surprise when I say I find this to be completely laughable and think there is too much hype generated by reporters who do not have a clear understanding about what is going on around them. To make matters worse, there is no easy way to explain what truly is happening in the economic world. I can try, however.

To put it in a nutshell, banks and creditors lost a lot of money when they invested mostly in real estate. Other banks and financial institutions handed out sub-prime loans like candy on Halloween, giving the middle-class American a chance to build their mini-mansions and lower-class workers their dream of owning a home. Then, the sub-prime loans turned sour when the banks and creditors began adjusting the mortgage rates to the point where people couldn't afford monthly payments. When the loans went bad (toxic) banks and financial institutions did not want to swap them around anymore (these credit derivatives would swap around all over the market like a pin ball machine). Further, with all the losses and bad assets on the banks' quarterly reports, banks didn't want to lend each other money any more. That led to the precipitous drop in the stock market back in September/October. Then Congress tried to act with a bailout but voted it down, which caused a bigger drop. When Congress passed the bill there was a lot of added programs and earmarks and more red tape for financial institutions to go through to receive aid. So the markets dropped. Then the bailout was staggered over time, allowing the markets to drop. During this whole ordeal more banks failed, causing the markets to drop, and people started losing their jobs at the banks and financial institutions, which led to a drop in the markets. Then businesses started worrying about receiving the credit they need to operate on a daily basis and began to tighten their belts, forcing layoffs and market drops. All the while, the news kept telling the public that no one has seen this since the Great Depression. of course, this lead to more market drops. And that is where I say POPPYCOCK! Pardon my language.

Okay, here is why there is no reason to panic and why this may end up being the best thing to happen to our economy in a long time. First off, this isn't the worst thing since the Great Depression. The 1970s and 1980s, with high inflation followed by stagflation followed by the thrift crisis was the worst thing since the Great Depression. The only difference between the then and now is the evolution of our society from producer nation to a consumer nation. When you look at the numbers from the 1970s 1980s you realize that, percentage-wise, we are doing better than they did. We just think it's worse because we haven't had a real recession since Clinton beat Bush in the 1992 election. Even then it wasn't that bad.

The tech-bubble burst in 2000 was a deep correction. The Enron/MCI/Tyco scandals were a part of the correction, not a recession. But they should have been. While businesses where reexamining their books and restating their profits we ignored the third leg of the market, real estate, and allowed it to run wild. We deregulated housing to the point where John Doe with no job and poor credit could land a decent home loan. Congress was even forcing mortgage companies, including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to approve more loans. We lusted for more property and, in turn, we diluted ourselves from the reality of all economies.

We led ourselves to believe that real estate was a sure thing no matter what; invest money in real estate and no where else because it never goes down. It reminds me of my Political Science 101 class (actually 1013 but we numbered things weird at my school), where my professor proclaimed that America has figured out how to break the economic cycle. He said we wouldn't have to worry about recessions any longer, that they were a thing of the past like disco and flappers. Again, I have to say POPPYCOCK! (There goes my language again)

Always remember, economies run in cycles and they always will. When the economy recovers and it seems like years since we had a recession and the "bulls" start pronouncing the end of the economic cycles don't be fooled and remember that economies run in cycles and they always will. Too many people fell for the trap in the 1990s. When the tech bubble burst, we just retreated to other businesses. When corporate scandals appeared, we ran to real estate. Now they have collapsed and there is no where else to turn. Currency markets, commodities and corporations alike are all feeling the negative effects of hyper reaction. But there is good news in all of this.

With corporations and small businesses scaling back their overhead, and with families starting to save for the first time in years, this nation will move on better off than we entered into the problem. That doesn't mean all of us will be more secure in employment, with lavish homes and luxury cars. Instead, it means we will relearn the benefits of holding a savings account and spending on what we need and not necessarily on what we want. Just like the Great Depression, we will be better off because we learned important lessons on credit and loans.

We fell into a Great Depression in the 1930's because we didn't understand what credit truly was about. We forced the Wiemar Economy to inflation so high that burning Deutschmark was cheaper than buying firewood. Our economy will be on stabler ground after this because we will not be teetering into credit defaults to the extreme we saw today.

When the media realizes there will be no soup lines like in the Great Depression, and when they learn the truth about Obama (he's a flawed human, like the rest of us), they will stop preaching about the End Times of America's economic might and move on to some other sensational topic. (Does anyone remember the summer of the shark attacks?)

Will it hurt during the recession? Well, yeah. Look at me. I lost my job after we lost the campaign and I still haven't found work. But I am certain someday, and it may be a long time until someday, I will find a job and return to paying down my enormous debt (okay, not that big) and return to a savings-oriented lifestyle instead of a debt-oriented lifestyle.

So, there is no need to panic. There is no need to worry about the end of the economic world. And there is always room for improvement, especially if all of your money is invested in one industry.

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